Spotting
Trends
and Weak Signals to
be a Leader of Continuous Innovation
With
the future so uncertain, one of the most important functions of any
leadership group in a constantly changing world will be to seed weak
signals and future trends into the dialogue and thinking of all areas
of organizational and community life. The following identify twelve
"megapactors" (weak signals and future trends of potential
major magnitude) that should be in the knowledge base of any potential
leader of the next twenty years:
-
A
shift in energy base from fossil fuels to hydrogen and alternative
energy.
-
Global warming that will rise mean temperatures by a minimum of 2.5%
in 100 years.
-
Unknown viruses and resistant bacteria are emerging
-
Accelerating change will test the limits of representative democracy.
-
Differential aging patterns of more seniors and more youth at the
same time creates an economic and social time bomb.
-
The reduction in biodiversity could mean that 1/2 of existing species
will be lost in the next fifty years.
-
We are approaching "technological singularity," a moment
when runaway advances outstrip human comprehension, and all our knowledge
and experience becomes useless as a guidepost to the future.
-
Real time changes require a new way of thinking and seeing connections
as the world becomes increasingly complex.
-
We are in a thirty-year economic transition as the world shifts from
an Industrial Economy to a Creative Knowledge Economy to a Web/Network
Economy.
-
Artificial Intelligence emerges and challenges the concept of what
it means to be human.
-
The confrontation of Islamic and Western Civilizations will create
an environment of anger, mistrust and even hate unless new types of
human and policy bridges are built.
-
National borders will increasingly become seamless.